Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, MC 0356, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Dec 8;106(49):20616-21. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0902568106. Epub 2009 Oct 12.
Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.
目前人为温室气体（GHG）的排放已经使地球到本世纪末的平均地表温度升高成为定局，这可能超过气候系统 tipping elements 发生突然变化的临界点，从而带来潜在的不可逆转和无法控制的后果。这将意味着气候系统接近或已经进入“危险的人为干扰区”（DAI）。科学和政策文献都提到需要“尽早”、“紧急”、“迅速”和“采取快速行动”来减轻影响，以避免 DAI 和气候的突然变化。我们将“快速行动”定义为包括可以在 2-3 年内开始实施的监管措施，并在 5-10 年内得到实质性的执行，以及在几十年内产生气候响应。我们讨论了短寿命非 CO2 GHG 和颗粒物质的策略，这些策略可以利用现有协议来实现减排目标。政策制定者可以修订《蒙特利尔议定书》，逐步减少具有高全球变暖潜力的氢氟碳化合物（HFCs）的生产和消费。其他快速行动策略可以减少导致低层大气臭氧形成的黑碳颗粒和前体气体的排放，并增加生物固碳，包括通过生物炭。这些和其他快速行动策略可以通过减少 CO2 排放来降低未来几十年内气候突然变化的风险。
