Institute of Gerontology, School of Health Sciences, Jönköping University, Box 1026, 551 11 Jönköping, Sweden.
Aging Clin Exp Res. 2009 Aug-Oct;21(4-5):329-37. doi: 10.1007/BF03324923.
Existing information about institutionalization of elderly individuals is mainly based on cross-sectional data and does not address the cumulative risk of institutionalization. The purpose of the present study was to analyze longitudinal data prospectively and estimate the risk of placement in an elder care institution for individuals aged 70 years or older.
The study was based on a longitudinal investigation (the H70 study) of a random sample of 70- year-olds living in Gothenburg, Sweden, in 1971. Individuals were followed from age 70-100 years. Three different analyses were performed: a descriptive prospective analysis, cross-sectional analyses at ages 70, 79 and 85 years, and a longitudinal analysis of predictors for institutionalization.
The prospective analysis indicated that 50% of the individuals eventually moved to an elder care institution. Significantly more women than men were institutionalized, although for women the move occurred later in life. Cross-sectional analyses demonstrated that various factors were important to institutionalization at different ages. The Cox regression model with time-varying covariates indicated that gender, socio-economic situation, marital status, number of symptoms, having children living nearby, and activities in daily life were related to institutionalization.
The proportion of elderly persons relocating to institutions was significantly higher than that generally found in cross-sectional studies. It was possible to identify variables that predict institutionalization during a subsequent 30-year period, but different analyses revealed different effects from the factors evaluated.
现有的关于老年人机构化的信息主要基于横断面数据，并未涉及机构化的累积风险。本研究的目的是分析前瞻性纵向数据，评估 70 岁及以上个体入住养老院的风险。
该研究基于一项对居住在瑞典哥德堡的 70 岁随机样本的纵向调查（H70 研究），于 1971 年进行。个体从 70 岁到 100 岁进行随访。进行了三种不同的分析：描述性前瞻性分析、70 岁、79 岁和 85 岁时的横断面分析以及机构化预测因素的纵向分析。
前瞻性分析表明，50%的个体最终搬入养老院。尽管女性的入住时间较晚，但女性的入住比例明显高于男性。横断面分析表明，不同年龄的各种因素对机构化都很重要。具有时变协变量的 Cox 回归模型表明，性别、社会经济状况、婚姻状况、症状数量、附近有子女居住以及日常生活活动与机构化有关。
搬入养老院的老年人比例明显高于横断面研究中的一般比例。可以确定在随后的 30 年期间预测机构化的变量，但不同的分析揭示了评估因素的不同影响。
