Unit of Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
Gerontology. 2018;64(1):19-27. doi: 10.1159/000480382. Epub 2017 Oct 19.
More recent birth cohorts of older people have better physical and cognitive status than earlier cohorts. As such, this could be expected to diminish the need for institutional care. The prediction of the future need for institutional care provides essential information for the planning and delivery of future care and social services as well as the resources needed.
To predict the future need for institutional care among older Finnish people born in 1940.
Representative samples of home-dwelling 70-year-olds from Turku, Finland were examined with similar methods in 1991 (those born in 1920) (n = 1,032) and in 2011 (those born in 1940) (n = 956). Predictors of institutionalization rates from the earlier 1920 cohort, together with data of sociodemographic factors, health, psychosocial and physical status, the need for help, and health behavior, were used to predict the future institutionalization rate among the 1940 cohort in this study using Cox regression models.
Health as well as psychosocial and physical status were significantly better in the 1940 cohort compared to the earlier cohort. In the 1940 cohort, the predicted rates of institutionalization were 1.8, 10.4, and 26.0% at the ages of 80 (year 2020), 85 (year 2025), and 90 years (year 2030), respectively. At every age (80, 85, and 90 years), the predicted rates of institutionalization by Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) were about two-fold among those with MMSE scores 18-26 (3.0-38.8%) compared to those with scores 27-30 (1.6-23.7%) and those with a body mass index (BMI) <25 (2.5-34.3%) compared to those with a BMI of 25-29.9 (1.4-20.9%), and about three-fold among participants with several falls (5.3-57.0%) compared to participants with no falls (1.5-23.1%).
The 1940 cohort performed better in health as well as psychosocial and physical status than the 1920 cohort. Nevertheless, the predicted rates of future need for institutional care were high, especially at the ages of 85 and 90 years, among those with a lowered cognitive or physical status.
较新出生的老年人比早期出生的老年人身体和认知状况更好。因此，这可能会减少对机构护理的需求。对未来机构护理需求的预测为未来护理和社会服务的规划和提供以及所需资源提供了重要信息。
预测芬兰 1940 年出生的老年人未来对机构护理的需求。
1991 年（出生于 1920 年）和 2011 年（出生于 1940 年），对居住在芬兰图尔库的 70 岁居家老年人进行了具有类似方法的代表性样本检查（n=1032）和（n=956）。使用来自较早的 1920 年队列的机构化率预测因子，以及社会人口因素、健康、心理社会和身体状况、对帮助的需求以及健康行为的数据，使用 Cox 回归模型预测该研究中 1940 年队列的未来机构化率。
与早期队列相比，1940 年队列的健康状况以及心理社会和身体状况明显更好。在 1940 年队列中，80 岁（2020 年）、85 岁（2025 年）和 90 岁（2030 年）的机构化预测率分别为 1.8%、10.4%和 26.0%。在每个年龄（80 岁、85 岁和 90 岁），MMSE 评分在 18-26 分的人（3.0-38.8%）的机构化预测率大约是 MMSE 评分在 27-30 分的人的两倍（1.6-23.7%）和 BMI ＜25（2.5-34.3%）的人的两倍与 BMI 为 25-29.9（1.4-20.9%）的人相比，有多次跌倒的参与者（5.3-57.0%）的机构化预测率大约是没有跌倒的参与者的三倍（1.5-23.1%）。
与 1920 年队列相比，1940 年队列的健康状况以及心理社会和身体状况均表现更好。然而，尤其是在 85 岁和 90 岁时，那些认知或身体状况较低的人对未来机构护理的需求预测很高。
