Department of Civil Engineering, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Iran.
Disasters. 2010 Apr;34(2):524-41. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2009.01141.x. Epub 2009 Dec 11.
Many mega cities in developing countries are exposed to the sources of natural catastrophes, particularly seismic activity. A high level of seismic hazard in some of these places, coupled with a relatively high degree of vulnerability within the built environment, can result in dire human and economic consequences. This paper contains examples of such potentially disruptive factors in relation to Tehran, Iran. It presents preliminary seismic loss estimates for residential buildings in a pilot area of northern Tehran. The paper briefly investigates the effectiveness of risk management measures and loss compensation mechanisms before assessing the feasibility of an insurance-based risk transfer instrument for managing potential seismic losses among residential buildings in Tehran. It goes on to suggest how probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling can help local insurers to manage their portfolios and facilitate risk sharing among insurance companies and households. Finally, the paper addresses the question of how catastrophe loss modelling can help to strengthen the penetration of property insurance in developing countries.
许多发展中国家的特大城市都面临着自然灾害的威胁，特别是地震活动。这些地方的一些地方存在较高的地震危险，加上建筑环境中相对较高的脆弱性，可能会导致严重的人员和经济后果。本文以伊朗德黑兰为例，介绍了与这些可能具有破坏性的因素有关的实例。本文针对德黑兰北部一个试点地区的住宅建筑，初步估算了地震造成的损失。本文简要探讨了风险管理措施和损失补偿机制的有效性，然后评估了基于保险的风险转移工具在管理德黑兰住宅建筑潜在地震损失方面的可行性。接着，本文建议概率灾难损失建模如何帮助当地保险公司管理其投资组合，并促进保险公司和家庭之间的风险分担。最后，本文探讨了灾难损失建模如何帮助加强发展中国家财产保险的渗透。
