Development Studies, Centre for International Development Issues Nijmegen (CIDIN), Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Disasters. 2010 Apr;34(2):509-23. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2009.01140.x. Epub 2009 Dec 11.
Ex-ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex-post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost-effectiveness of ex-ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost-effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex-post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex-ante adaptation initiatives.
事前措施被普遍认为比事后措施更能有效提升应对自然灾害的风险防范能力。然而，大多数资源仍倾向于在事件发生后被配置到易受自然灾害影响的地理区域。本文分析了地震发生后采取事前适应措施的成本效益，并评估了私人和公共机构在灾害风险管理方面的未来作用。该研究采用模拟模型方法，评估了不同干预情景下地震后的消费损失。特别关注活动多样化措施在提高灾害防范能力方面的作用，以及（有针对性的）微额信贷和灾后重建教育计划的作用。尽管前一种措施具有更高的成本效益，但市场缺失和逆向激励往往使事后措施成为首选，从而导致事前适应措施投资不足。
