Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany.
Risk Anal. 2010 Jan;30(1):107-24. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01325.x. Epub 2009 Dec 11.
For the purpose of flood damage analyses reliable, comparable, comprehensive, consistent, and up-to-date data are an indispensable need. Like in many other countries a database with this kind of datasets does not exist in Germany. To establish it, standards have to be set for flood damage data collection. We approached this problem by questioning experts about their information needs for flood damage analysis. This survey is done by applying a Delphi survey approach. The aptitude of the Delphi approach to assess, structure, and standardize expert knowledge is evaluated in this article. In the survey a panel of 55 experts working in the field of flood damage analysis for insurances, engineering companies/consultancy, public water management, and universities and other scientific institutions helped to identify common information needs. The multi-step Delphi method proved to reduce the deviation of answers thereby enabling consensual results and also enhanced the quality by modifying group answers in the direction of experience based answers. There was also a high level of congruence in information needs between experts from different fields of employment that allowed the derivation of common standards.
为了进行洪水灾害分析，可靠、可比、全面、一致和最新的数据是必不可少的。与许多其他国家一样，德国也没有此类数据集的数据库。要建立这样的数据库，就必须为洪水灾害数据收集制定标准。我们通过询问专家他们对洪水灾害分析的信息需求来解决这个问题。这项调查是通过应用德尔菲调查方法来完成的。本文评估了德尔菲方法在评估、构建和规范专家知识方面的能力。在调查中，一个由 55 名专家组成的小组参与其中，他们分别来自保险、工程公司/咨询公司、公共水资源管理、大学和其他科学机构，旨在确定共同的信息需求。多步德尔菲法被证明可以减少答案的偏差，从而使结果达成共识，并通过朝着基于经验的答案方向修改小组答案来提高质量。来自不同就业领域的专家在信息需求方面也有很高的一致性，这使得共同标准得以制定。
