Section of Biostatistics, Paul-Ehrlich-Institut, Federal Institute for Vaccines and Biomedicines, Langen, Germany.
Transfusion. 2010 Jan;50(1):231-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1537-2995.2009.02498.x. Epub 2009 Dec 9.
Blood supplies are delicate resources, particularly vulnerable to incidents affecting the health of donors. The critical impact of a pandemic on the availability of red blood cells (RBCs) has been demonstrated in previous research; however, a detailed estimate of the expected deficit is missing. This has become a priority issue in the face of the current influenza pandemic.
Data from several major blood donation services were used to analyze management of blood supplies in Germany. Routine management of RBCs was extrapolated to epidemic and pandemic situations using computer simulations with a mathematical model that allows for analysis of deficits in blood supplies.
Routine management and distribution of RBCs are driven by supply, which has marked fluctuations but does not appear to have seasonality. There seems to be a remarkable elasticity in the demand for RBCs that helps to mitigate minor crises in supply, but this is likely to be overstretched during a severe pandemic.
The supply-driven management of RBCs in Germany implies that assessment of severity of shortages due to a pandemic depends on detailed knowledge about the fraction of transfusions that do not allow for postponement. Pandemic preparedness should include criteria for prioritization of transfusions.
血液供应是一种脆弱的资源，特别容易受到影响献血者健康的事件的影响。以前的研究已经证明了大流行对红细胞（RBC）供应的严重影响；然而，目前还缺乏对预期赤字的详细估计。在当前流感大流行的情况下，这已成为一个优先事项。
使用来自几个主要献血服务的数据来分析德国的血液供应管理。使用允许分析血液供应短缺的数学模型，通过计算机模拟来推断 RBC 的常规管理和在流行和大流行情况下的分配。
RBC 的常规管理和分配由供应驱动，供应有明显波动，但似乎没有季节性。RBC 的需求似乎具有显著的弹性，有助于缓解供应的轻微危机，但在严重大流行期间，这种弹性可能会过度拉伸。
德国 RBC 的供应驱动管理意味着，对大流行引起的短缺严重程度的评估取决于对不能推迟的输血比例的详细了解。大流行准备应包括输血优先级的标准。
