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多菌株大流行的数学模型通用方法。

Generic approach for mathematical model of multi-strain pandemics.

机构信息

Department of Cancer Biology, Cancer Institute, University College London, United Kingdom.

Department of Mathematics, Ariel University, Ariel, Israel.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2022 Apr 28;17(4):e0260683. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260683. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Multi-strain pandemics have emerged as a major concern. We introduce a new model for assessing the connection between multi-strain pandemics and mortality rate, basic reproduction number, and maximum infected individuals. The proposed model provides a general mathematical approach for representing multi-strain pandemics, generalizing for an arbitrary number of strains. We show that the proposed model fits well with epidemiological historical world health data over a long time period. From a theoretical point of view, we show that the increasing number of strains increases logarithmically the maximum number of infected individuals and the mean mortality rate. Moreover, the mean basic reproduction number is statistically identical to the single, most aggressive pandemic strain for multi-strain pandemics.

摘要

多菌株大流行已成为一个主要关注点。我们引入了一个新的模型来评估多菌株大流行与死亡率、基本再生数和最大感染人数之间的关系。所提出的模型提供了一种表示多菌株大流行的通用数学方法,可以推广到任意数量的菌株。我们表明,所提出的模型很好地适用于长期的流行病学历史世界卫生数据。从理论角度来看,我们表明,菌株数量的增加对数地增加了最大感染人数和平均死亡率。此外,对于多菌株大流行,平均基本再生数在统计学上与单一、最具攻击性的大流行菌株相同。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f8fc/9049317/093e69edcc42/pone.0260683.g001.jpg

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