Lempel Howard, Epstein Joshua M, Hammond Ross A
Economic Studies, The Brookings Institution.
PLoS Curr. 2009 Oct 5;1:RRN1051. doi: 10.1371/currents.rrn1051.
School closure is an important component of U.S. pandemic flu mitigation strategy, but has important costs. We give estimates of both the direct economic and health care impacts for school closure durations of 2, 4, 6, and 12 weeks under a range of assumptions. We find that closing all schools in the U.S. for four weeks could cost between $10 and $47 billion dollars (0.1-0.3% of GDP) and lead to a reduction of 6% to 19% in key health care personnel.
学校停课是美国流感大流行缓解策略的一个重要组成部分,但会产生重大成本。我们在一系列假设下,对停课2周、4周、6周和12周的直接经济和医疗影响进行了估算。我们发现,美国所有学校停课四周可能会花费100亿至470亿美元(占国内生产总值的0.1%-0.3%),并导致关键医护人员减少6%至19%。