Classification models for early identification of persons at risk for dementia in primary care: an evaluation in a sample aged 80 years and older.

AIM

To evaluate previously developed classification models to make implementation in primary care possible and aid early identification of persons at risk for dementia.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the OCTO-Twin study. At baseline, 521 persons >or= 80 years of age were nondemented, and for 387 a blood sample was available. Predictors of dementia were collected and analyzed in initially nondemented persons using generalized estimating equations and Cox survival analyses.

RESULTS

In the basic model using predictors already known or easily obtained (basic set), the mean 2-year predictive value increased from 6.9 to 28.8% in persons with memory complaints and an MMSE score <or= 25. In the extended model, using both the basic set and an extended set of predictors requiring further assessment, the 8-year predictive value increased from 15.0 to 45.8% in persons with low cholesterol and an MMSE score <or= 24.

CONCLUSION

Both models can contribute to an improved early identification of persons at risk for dementia in primary care.