Coordinated by the USDA APHIS VS Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, National Surveillance Unit, 2150 Centre Ave, Fort Collins, CO, 80526-8117, United States.
Prev Vet Med. 2010 Apr 1;94(1-2):128-39. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.11.020. Epub 2010 Jan 18.
Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) is an OIE-listed pathogen of fish, recently expanding in known host and geographic range in North America. Through a group process designed for subjective probability assessment, an international panel of fish health experts identified and weighted risk factors perceived important to the emergence and spread of the viral genotype, VHSV IVb, within and from the Great Lakes region of the US and Canada. Identified factors included the presence of known VHSV-susceptible species, water temperatures conducive for disease, hydrologic connectivity and proximity to known VHSV-positive areas, untested shipments of live or frozen fish from known positive regions, insufficient regulatory infrastructure for fish health oversight, and uncontrolled exposure to fomites associated with boat and equipment or fish wastes from known VHSV-positive areas. Results provide qualitative insights for use in VHSV surveillance and risk-management planning, and quantitative estimates of contextual risk for use in a Bayesian model combining multiple evidence streams for joint probability assessment of disease freedom status. Consistency checks suggest that the compiled factors positively reflect expert judgment of watershed risk for acquiring VHSV IVb. External validation is recommended as the availability of empirical data permits.
病毒性出血性败血症病毒（VHSV）是一种被 OIE 列为鱼类病原体的病毒，最近在北美的已知宿主和地理范围内不断扩大。通过一个旨在进行主观概率评估的小组过程，一个国际鱼类健康专家小组确定并加权了与病毒基因型 VHSV IVb 在北美五大湖地区出现和传播相关的、被认为重要的风险因素。确定的因素包括存在已知易感染 VHSV 的物种、有利于疾病发生的水温、水文学连通性以及与已知 VHSV 阳性地区的接近程度、来自已知阳性地区的未经测试的活鱼或冷冻鱼的运输、鱼类健康监督的监管基础设施不足，以及与来自已知 VHSV 阳性地区的船只和设备或鱼类废物有关的无控制的接触。研究结果为 VHSV 监测和风险管理规划提供了定性见解，并为贝叶斯模型提供了与多个证据流相结合的上下文风险的定量估计，以联合评估疾病自由状态的概率。一致性检查表明，所编译的因素积极反映了专家对获得 VHSV IVb 的流域风险的判断。建议进行外部验证，因为随着经验数据的可用性而进行。
