Lehrstuhl für Waldwachstumskunde, TU München, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354, Freising, Germany.
Int J Biometeorol. 2010 Jul;54(4):449-64. doi: 10.1007/s00484-009-0298-0. Epub 2010 Jan 19.
In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, forest management in Europe is becoming increasingly important. Model simulations can help to understand the reactions and feedbacks of a changing environment on tree growth. In order to simulate forest growth based on future climate change scenarios, we tested the basic processes underlying the growth model BALANCE, simulating stand climate (air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and precipitation), tree phenology, and photosynthesis. A mixed stand of 53- to 60-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Southern Germany was used as a reference. The results show that BALANCE is able to realistically simulate air temperature gradients in a forest stand using air temperature measurements above the canopy and PAR regimes at different heights for single trees inside the canopy. Interception as a central variable for water balance of a forest stand was also estimated. Tree phenology, i.e. bud burst and leaf coloring, could be reproduced convincingly. Simulated photosynthesis rates were in accordance with measured values for beech both in the sun and the shade crown. For spruce, however, some discrepancies in the rates were obvious, probably due to changed environmental conditions after bud break. Overall, BALANCE has shown to respond to scenario simulations of a changing environment (e.g., climate change, change of forest stand structure).
面对气候变化及其带来的风险,欧洲的森林管理变得越来越重要。模型模拟有助于理解环境变化对树木生长的反应和反馈。为了根据未来的气候变化情景模拟森林生长,我们测试了 BALANCE 生长模型的基本过程,模拟了林分气候(空气温度、光合有效辐射 (PAR) 和降水)、树木物候和光合作用。以德国南部一个 53 至 60 年生的挪威云杉 (Picea abies) 和欧洲山毛榉 (Fagus sylvatica) 的混合林分为参考。结果表明,BALANCE 能够使用树冠上方的空气温度测量值和树冠内不同高度的单个树木的 PAR 制度,真实地模拟林分中的空气温度梯度。作为林分水量平衡的中心变量,林分对空气的截留也得到了估计。树木物候,即芽萌发和叶片变色,可以令人信服地再现。模拟的光合作用速率与榉木在阳光和阴影树冠下的实测值相符。然而,对于云杉,光合作用速率存在一些明显的差异,可能是由于芽萌发后环境条件发生了变化。总的来说,BALANCE 已经证明对环境变化(如气候变化、林分结构变化)的情景模拟有反应。