Saunders Mark A, Lea Adam S
Benfield Hazard Research Centre, Department of Space and Climate Physics, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK.
Nature. 2005 Apr 21;434(7036):1005-8. doi: 10.1038/nature03454.
Much of the property damage from natural hazards in the United States is caused by landfalling hurricanes--strong tropical cyclones that reach the coast. For the southeastern Atlantic coast of the US, a statistical method for forecasting the occurrence of landfalling hurricanes for the season ahead has been reported, but the physical mechanisms linking the predictor variables to the frequency of hurricanes remain unclear. Here we present a statistical model that uses July wind anomalies between 1950 and 2003 to predict with significant and useful skill the wind energy of US landfalling hurricanes for the following main hurricane season (August to October). We have identified six regions over North America and over the east Pacific and North Atlantic oceans where July wind anomalies, averaged between heights of 925 and 400 mbar, exhibit a stationary and significant link to the energy of landfalling hurricanes during the subsequent hurricane season. The wind anomalies in these regions are indicative of atmospheric circulation patterns that either favour or hinder evolving hurricanes from reaching US shores.
在美国，自然灾害造成的大部分财产损失是由登陆飓风——到达海岸的强烈热带气旋——引起的。对于美国东南大西洋海岸，已经报道了一种预测未来季节登陆飓风发生情况的统计方法，但将预测变量与飓风频率联系起来的物理机制仍不清楚。在这里，我们提出了一个统计模型，该模型使用1950年至2003年7月的风异常来显著且有效地预测下一个主要飓风季节（8月至10月）美国登陆飓风的风能。我们已经确定了北美、东太平洋和北大西洋的六个区域，在这些区域，925至400毫巴高度之间的7月风异常与随后飓风季节登陆飓风的能量呈现出稳定且显著的联系。这些区域的风异常表明了有利于或阻碍不断发展的飓风到达美国海岸的大气环流模式。
