Laugesen M, Meads C
Department of Health, Wellington, New Zealand.
Br J Addict. 1991 Jan;86(1):83-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.1991.tb02631.x.
Total cigarettes (all brands) sold weekly by a panel of 60 New Zealand supermarkets were monitored electronically for 42 weeks, a period when cigarette advertisements were in plain format with strong, varied disease warnings. Real cigarette price, newspaper advertising of old, regular and upmarket brands, and the number of newspaper news items on smoking issues were inversely associated with cigarette sales. Tending to increase total sales (all brands) were: more non-shopping days in the current week, and in the week following; volume of grocery items purchased, to indicate income and store traffic; and real advertising expenditure in newspapers for new downmarket cigarette brands, particularly one heavily-advertised brand (Peter Jackson) which was in late 1989 smoked by 4% of teenage smokers. All factors when interacting, explained 93% of changes in weekly cigarette sales. Most of the change occurred in the same week, and was 90% in place after a further 3 weeks. Newspapers, by doubling news coverage of smoking issues or by banning cigarette advertisements, can lower cigarette consumption as much as can a 10% price increase.
对60家新西兰超市组成的样本每周销售的香烟总量（所有品牌）进行了42周的电子监测，在此期间，香烟广告采用简洁形式，并带有强烈且多样的疾病警示。实际香烟价格、旧品牌、常规品牌和高档品牌的报纸广告，以及报纸上关于吸烟问题的新闻报道数量与香烟销量呈负相关。倾向于增加总销量（所有品牌）的因素有：本周及接下来一周非购物日增多；购买的杂货数量，以表明收入和商店客流量；以及针对新的低价香烟品牌的报纸实际广告支出，特别是一个大力宣传的品牌（彼得·杰克逊），1989年末有4%的青少年吸烟者吸食该品牌香烟。所有因素相互作用时，解释了每周香烟销量变化的93%。大部分变化发生在同一周，再过3周后90%的变化已到位。报纸通过将吸烟问题的新闻报道增加一倍或禁止香烟广告，降低香烟消费量的效果与香烟价格提高10%相当。
