Townsend J, Roderick P, Cooper J
MRC Epidemiology and Medical Care Unit, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Medical College of St Bartholomew's Hospital, London.
BMJ. 1994 Oct 8;309(6959):923-7. doi: 10.1136/bmj.309.6959.923.
To assess effects of price, income, and health publicity on cigarette smoking by age, sex, and socioeconomic group.
Econometric multiple regression analysis of data on cigarette smoking from the British general household survey.
Random sample of adult population in Britain interviewed for biennial general household surveys 1972-90.
Changes in cigarette consumption and prevalence of smoking.
Price elasticities of demand for cigarettes (percentage change in cigarette consumption for a 1% change in price) were significant at -0.5 (95% confidence interval -0.8 to -0.1) for men and -0.6 (-0.9 to -0.3) for women, were highest in socioeconomic group V (-1.0 for men and -0.9 for women), and lowest (not significantly different from zero) in socioeconomic groups I and II. The gradient in price elasticities by socioeconomic group was significant for men (F = 5.6, P = 0.02) and for women (F = 6.1, P = 0.02). Price was a significant factor in cigarette consumption by age for women in every age group and for men aged 25-34. Cigarette consumption by young men aged 16-34 increased with income. There was a significant decrease in smoking over time by women in socioeconomic groups I and II and by men in all age and social groups except socioeconomic group V attributable to health publicity. Price significantly affected smoking prevalence in socioeconomic group V (-0.6 for men and -0.5 for women) and for all women (-0.2).
Men and women in lower socioeconomic groups are more responsive than are those in higher socioeconomic groups to changes in the price of cigarettes and less to health publicity. Women of all ages, including teenagers, appear to have been less responsive to health publicity than have men but more responsive to price. Response to health publicity decreased linearly with age. Real price increases in cigarettes could narrow differences between socioeconomic groups in smoking and the related inequalities in health, but specific measures would be necessary to ameliorate effects on the most deprived families that may include members who continue to smoke. The use of a policy to steadily increase cigarette tax is likely to help achieve the government's targets for smoking and smoking related diseases.
评估价格、收入和健康宣传对不同年龄、性别及社会经济群体吸烟情况的影响。
对英国一般家庭调查中吸烟数据进行计量经济学多元回归分析。
1972 - 1990年每两年接受一次一般家庭调查访谈的英国成年人口随机样本。
香烟消费量的变化及吸烟率。
香烟需求的价格弹性（价格变动1%时香烟消费量的百分比变化），男性为 -0.5（95%置信区间 -0.8至 -0.1），女性为 -0.6（-0.9至 -0.3）；在社会经济群体V中最高（男性为 -1.0，女性为 -0.9），在社会经济群体I和II中最低（与零无显著差异）。社会经济群体间价格弹性的梯度在男性中显著（F = 5.6，P = 0.02），在女性中也显著（F = 6.1，P = 0.02）。价格是各年龄组女性及25 - 34岁男性香烟消费的重要因素。16 - 34岁年轻男性的香烟消费量随收入增加。由于健康宣传，社会经济群体I和II中的女性以及除社会经济群体V外所有年龄和社会群体中的男性吸烟率随时间显著下降。价格对社会经济群体V中的吸烟率有显著影响（男性为 -0.6，女性为 -0.5），对所有女性也有显著影响（-0.2）。
社会经济地位较低群体中的男性和女性比社会经济地位较高群体中的男性和女性对香烟价格变化更敏感，对健康宣传的反应则较小。包括青少年在内的所有年龄段女性对健康宣传的反应似乎比男性小，但对价格更敏感。对健康宣传的反应随年龄呈线性下降。香烟实际价格上涨可缩小社会经济群体间吸烟及相关健康不平等方面的差异，但可能需要采取具体措施来减轻对最贫困家庭（可能包括继续吸烟成员）的影响。稳步提高香烟税的政策可能有助于实现政府在吸烟及与吸烟相关疾病方面的目标。
