Manchester Metropolitan University, Research Centre for Musculoskeletal Science & Sports Medicine, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester, United Kingdom.
Institute of Sport Science and Innovations, Lithuanian Sports University, Kaunas, Lithuania.
J Musculoskelet Neuronal Interact. 2021 Jun 1;21(2):196-205.
Plateauing of world records in sports has been suggested to reflect the limits of human physiology. Possible explanations include reduced doping or declining popularity that may even lead to a decrease in human performance. Such a decrease, however, has not yet been observed. We hypothesized that rather than a performance plateau, performance has recently declined.
Fifteen athletic disciplines of the Austrian annual rankings were analyzed by regression statistics and the average best performance of the last 20 years compared to earlier periods.
The best performances occurred between 1980-1999 and were on average 2.56% (men) and 1.67% (women) better than between 2000-2019. This attenuation was significant in men in 200 m, 800 m, 1500 m, 10 km, long jump, javelin throw (p<0.05), high jump, pole vault, discus throw, shot put and hammer throw (p<0.001); and in women in 400 m, long jump, discus throw (p<0.05) and high jump (p<0.001). The greatest performance declines were observed in the men's shot put (9.11%) and hammer throw (11.44%).
The Austrian track and field annual best results show a performance decline following a peak, instead of a plateau. Future studies should address the causes and whether this also applies to other sports and countries.
世界体育纪录的停滞不前被认为反映了人类生理学的极限。可能的解释包括减少兴奋剂的使用或受欢迎程度的下降，这甚至可能导致人类表现的下降。然而，这种下降尚未被观察到。我们假设，与其说是表现的停滞，不如说是最近的表现有所下降。
通过回归统计分析了奥地利年度排名的 15 项运动项目，并将过去 20 年的平均最佳表现与早期时期进行了比较。
最佳表现出现在 1980-1999 年，平均比 2000-2019 年高出 2.56%（男性）和 1.67%（女性）。这种衰减在男性的 200 米、800 米、1500 米、10 公里、跳远、标枪投掷（p<0.05）、跳高、撑杆跳、铁饼投掷、铅球和链球投掷（p<0.001）中以及女性的 400 米、跳远、铁饼投掷（p<0.05）和跳高（p<0.001）中具有统计学意义。在男子铅球（9.11%）和链球（11.44%）中观察到最大的表现下降。
奥地利田径年度最佳成绩显示出表现下降，而不是停滞不前。未来的研究应该探讨原因，以及这种情况是否也适用于其他运动和国家。
