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游泳世界纪录存在极限吗?

Are there limits to swimming world records?

作者信息

Nevill A M, Whyte G P, Holder R L, Peyrebrune M

机构信息

School of Sport, Performing Arts and Leisure, University of Wolverhampton, Wolverhampton, United Kingdom.

出版信息

Int J Sports Med. 2007 Dec;28(12):1012-7. doi: 10.1055/s-2007-965088. Epub 2007 May 29.

DOI:10.1055/s-2007-965088
PMID:17534781
Abstract

The purpose of this article was to investigate whether swimming world records are beginning to plateau and whether the inequality between men and women's swimming performances is narrowing, similar to that observed in running world records. A flattened "S-shaped curve" logistic curve is fitted to 100-m, 200-m, and 400-m front-crawl world-record swimming speeds for men and women from 1 May 1957 to the present time, using the non-linear least-squares regression. The inequality between men and women's world records is also assessed using the ratio, Women's/Men's world record speeds. The results confirm that men and women's front-crawl swimming world-record speeds are plateauing and the ratio between women's and men's world records has remained stable at approximately 0.9. In conclusion, the logistic curves provide evidence that swimming world-record speeds experienced a period of "accelerated" growth/improvements during the 1960 - 1970s, but are now beginning to plateau. The period of acceleration corresponded with numerous advances in science and technology but also coincided with the anecdotal evidence for institutionalised doping. Also noteworthy, however, is the remarkably consistency in the women's/men's world record ratio, circa 0.9, similar to those observed in middle and long distance running performances. These finding supports the notion that a 10 % gender inequality exists for both swimming and running.

摘要

本文旨在研究游泳世界纪录是否开始趋于平稳,以及男女游泳成绩之间的差距是否正在缩小,这与跑步世界纪录的情况类似。使用非线性最小二乘法回归,将一条扁平的“S形曲线”逻辑曲线拟合到1957年5月1日至今的男女100米、200米和400米自由泳世界纪录游泳速度上。男女世界纪录之间的差距也使用女子/男子世界纪录速度的比率进行评估。结果证实,男女自由泳世界纪录速度正在趋于平稳,女子与男子世界纪录之间的比率一直稳定在约0.9。总之,逻辑曲线提供了证据,表明游泳世界纪录速度在20世纪60年代至70年代经历了一段“加速”增长/提高的时期,但现在开始趋于平稳。加速期与众多科学技术进步相对应,但也与制度化使用兴奋剂的传闻证据相吻合。然而,同样值得注意的是,女子/男子世界纪录比率显著一致,约为0.9,与中长跑成绩中观察到的情况类似。这些发现支持了游泳和跑步都存在10%的性别不平等这一观点。

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