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随机传染病模型:综述。

Stochastic epidemic models: a survey.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.

出版信息

Math Biosci. 2010 May;225(1):24-35. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2010.01.006. Epub 2010 Jan 25.

Abstract

This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic (relying on a large community) properties are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by studying effects of vaccination and also in terms of inference procedures for important parameters, such as the basic reproduction number and the critical vaccination coverage. Several generalizations towards realism, e.g. multitype and household epidemic models, are also presented, as is a model for endemic diseases.

摘要

这是一篇关于随机传染病模型的综述论文。文中定义了一个简单的随机传染病模型,并给出了其精确解和渐近解(依赖于大社区)。通过研究疫苗接种的效果,以及对基本繁殖数和临界疫苗接种覆盖率等重要参数的推断程序,展示了建模的目的。还提出了几个向现实情况的推广,例如多类型和家庭传染病模型,以及一种地方性疾病模型。

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