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一个包含奥恩斯坦-乌伦贝克过程的随机流行病模型的分析。

Analysis of a stochastic epidemic model incorporating the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

作者信息

Mediani Mhammed, Slama Abdeldjalil, Boudaoui Ahmed, Abdeljawad Thabet

机构信息

Laboratory of Mathematics, Modeling and Applications (LaMMA), University of Adrar, Adrar, Algeria.

Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Prince Sultan University Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Aug 6;10(16):e35749. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35749. eCollection 2024 Aug 30.

Abstract

This article aims to analyze a stochastic epidemic model (Susceptible-exposed-undetected infected-detected infected (reported -recovered) assuming that the transmission rate at which people undetected become detected is perturbed by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our first objective is to prove that the stochastic model has a unique positive global solution by constructing a nonnegative Lyapunov function. Afterward, we provide a sufficient criterion to prove the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution of the mode by constructing a suitable series of Lyapunov functions. Subsequently, we establish sufficient conditions for the extinction of the disease. Finally, a series of numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results.

摘要

本文旨在分析一个随机流行病模型(易感-暴露-未检测到的感染-检测到的感染(报告-康复)),假设未检测到的人被检测到的传播率受到奥恩斯坦-乌伦贝克过程的扰动。我们的首要目标是通过构造一个非负李雅普诺夫函数来证明该随机模型有唯一的正全局解。之后,我们通过构造一系列合适的李雅普诺夫函数,提供一个充分准则来证明该模型遍历平稳分布的存在性。随后,我们建立疾病灭绝的充分条件。最后,进行一系列数值模拟以说明理论结果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b9b9/11367037/a4ebfe69d3ee/gr001.jpg

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