Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University - Hong Kong Baptist University United International College, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China.
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Interdisciplinary Research and Application for Data Science, BNU-HKBU United International College, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China.
J Math Biol. 2023 Apr 25;86(5):82. doi: 10.1007/s00285-023-01920-w.
We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the final size relation. It is shown that the ratio of accumulated counts of symptomatic patients and asymptomatic patients is determined by the symptomatic ratio f which is defined as the probability of eventually becoming symptomatic after being infected. We also formulate and study a general age-of-infection model with disease deaths and with two infection pathways. The final size relation is investigated, and the upper and lower bounds for final epidemic size are given. Several numerical simulations are performed to verify the analytical results.
我们提出了一个具有两种感染途径(有症状感染和无症状感染)的一般感染年龄结构模型。然后,我们计算了基本繁殖数[Formula: see text]并建立了最终规模关系。结果表明,有症状患者和无症状患者的累积计数之比取决于有症状比例 f,该比例定义为感染后最终出现症状的概率。我们还提出并研究了一个具有疾病死亡和两种感染途径的一般感染年龄结构模型。研究了最终规模关系,并给出了最终流行规模的上下界。进行了一些数值模拟以验证分析结果。