Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Jul 23;121(30):e2400425121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2400425121. Epub 2024 Jul 16.
In the centuries following Christopher Columbus's 1492 voyage to the Americas, transoceanic travel opened unprecedented pathways in global pathogen circulation. Yet no biological transfer is a single, discrete event. We use mathematical modeling to quantify historical risk of shipborne pathogen introduction, exploring the respective contributions of journey time, ship size, population susceptibility, transmission intensity, density dependence, and pathogen biology. We contextualize our results using port arrivals data from San Francisco, 1850 to 1852, and from a selection of historically significant voyages, 1492 to 1918. We offer numerical estimates of introduction risk across historically realistic ranges of journey time and ship population size, and show that both steam travel and shipping regimes that involved frequent, large-scale movement of people substantially increased risk of transoceanic pathogen circulation.
在克里斯托弗·哥伦布（Christopher Columbus） 1492 年航行至美洲后的几个世纪里，跨洋旅行在全球病原体传播中开辟了前所未有的途径。然而，没有任何生物转移是单一的、离散的事件。我们使用数学模型来量化船舶载病原体传入的历史风险，探讨旅程时间、船舶大小、人口易感性、传播强度、密度依赖性和病原体生物学各自的贡献。我们使用 1850 年至 1852 年旧金山的港口到达数据和从 1492 年至 1918 年一些具有历史意义的航行来对我们的结果进行背景分析。我们提供了在历史上现实的旅程时间和船舶人口规模范围内的传入风险的数值估计，并表明蒸汽旅行和涉及频繁、大规模人口流动的航运制度都大大增加了跨洋病原体传播的风险。
