Baghestani Ahmad Reza, Hajizadeh Ebrahim, Fatemi Seyed Reza
Department of Biostatistics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2009;10(5):823-6.
Gastric cancer is one of the most common cancers in the world. The aim of this study was to evaluate prognostic factors using Bayesian interval censoring analysis.
This is a historical cohort study of 178 patients from February 2003 through January 2008, admitted with gastric cancer to one referral hospital in Tehran. Age at diagnosis, sex, histology type, tumor grade, tumor size, pathologic stage, lymph node metastasis and distant of metastasis were entered into the analysis using Bayesian Weibull and Exponential models. The term DIC was employed to find best model.
The results showed that as age increased, the risk of death slightly increased significantly in both Weibull and Exponential models with similar results. Patients with grater tumor size were also in higher risk of death followed by advanced pathologic stage. Neither the Weibull nor the Exponential models found sex, distant metastasis, histology type, tumor grade and lymph node metastasis to be prognostic factors. Based on DIC, Bayesian analysis of the Weibull model performed better than the Exponential model.
According to these results the early detection of patients at lower ages and in primary stages is important to increase the survival in cases with gastric cancer.
胃癌是世界上最常见的癌症之一。本研究的目的是使用贝叶斯区间删失分析评估预后因素。
这是一项对2003年2月至2008年1月期间入住德黑兰一家转诊医院的178例胃癌患者进行的历史性队列研究。使用贝叶斯威布尔模型和指数模型对诊断时的年龄、性别、组织学类型、肿瘤分级、肿瘤大小、病理分期、淋巴结转移和远处转移进行分析。采用DIC（离差信息准则）来寻找最佳模型。
结果显示，随着年龄的增加，威布尔模型和指数模型中死亡风险均略有显著增加，结果相似。肿瘤尺寸较大的患者死亡风险也较高，其次是病理分期较晚的患者。威布尔模型和指数模型均未发现性别、远处转移、组织学类型、肿瘤分级和淋巴结转移是预后因素。基于DIC，威布尔模型的贝叶斯分析比指数模型表现更好。
根据这些结果，早期发现年龄较小和处于初级阶段的患者对于提高胃癌患者的生存率很重要。
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