Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom.
Prev Vet Med. 2010 May 1;94(3-4):306-9. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.01.004. Epub 2010 Feb 8.
As part of an EU-wide programme to reduce the prevalence of Salmonella in commercial egg-laying holdings, the EU has set for the UK an annual target of 10% reduction in the prevalence of Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium in commercial egg-laying holdings. To assist in demonstrating such a reduction, it is very important to obtain an accurate as possible baseline prevalence for Salmonella. The objective of this study was to provide a baseline estimate of the Salmonella prevalence in egg-laying holdings in the UK. Data from an EU baseline survey for Salmonella in UK commercial egg-laying flocks were therefore analysed using Bayesian methods, taking into account the sampling of only 1 flock per holding and estimates of the test sensitivity of the methods used in the EU baseline survey. In addition, in the UK the majority of the eggs come from farms which have participated in voluntary monitoring programmes for Salmonella since the early 1990s, and this data was also used, along with a prior estimate of the test sensitivity of voluntary surveillance. Results indicated that a true prevalence 14% for Salmonella Enteriditis and Typhimurium, and 18% for all serovars, both of these estimates being higher than has previously been reported from the EU baseline survey data. It is also shown that the sensitivity of voluntary surveillance is low, and it will therefore be important to compare results from "official" and "non-official" samples to check that the sampling performed in the National Control Plan is as sensitive as expected.
作为欧盟减少商业蛋鸡养殖场中沙门氏菌流行率的计划的一部分，欧盟为英国设定了每年减少商业蛋鸡养殖场中肠炎沙门氏菌和鼠伤寒沙门氏菌流行率 10%的目标。为了协助证明这种减少，非常重要的是获得沙门氏菌的尽可能准确的基线流行率。本研究的目的是提供英国蛋鸡养殖场中沙门氏菌流行率的基线估计。因此，使用贝叶斯方法分析了来自欧盟对英国商业蛋鸡群中沙门氏菌的基线调查的数据，考虑到仅对每个养殖场进行 1 次抽样，以及欧盟基线调查中使用的方法的测试灵敏度的估计。此外，在英国，大多数鸡蛋来自自 20 世纪 90 年代初以来参加了沙门氏菌自愿监测计划的农场，并且还使用了这些数据，以及对自愿监测的测试灵敏度的先前估计。结果表明，肠炎沙门氏菌和鼠伤寒沙门氏菌的真实流行率为 14%，所有血清型的流行率为 18%，这两个估计值均高于欧盟基线调查数据之前的报告。还表明，自愿监测的灵敏度较低，因此，将“官方”和“非官方”样本的结果进行比较以检查国家控制计划中进行的抽样是否如预期的那样敏感将非常重要。
