Center for Decision Research, University of Chicago, USA.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2010 Feb;139(1):49-69. doi: 10.1037/a0018062.
People tend to attach less value to a good if they know a delay will occur before they obtain it. For example, people value receiving $100 tomorrow more than receiving $100 in 10 years. We explored one reason for this tendency (due to Parfit, 1984): In terms of psychological properties, such as beliefs, values, and goals, the decision maker is more closely linked to the person (his or her future self) receiving $100 tomorrow than to the person receiving $100 in 10 years. For this reason, he or she prefers his or her nearer self to have the $100 rather than his or her more remote self. Studies 1 and 2 showed that the greater the rated psychological connection between 2 parts of a participant's life, the less he or she discounted future monetary and nonmonetary benefits (e.g., good days at work) over that interval. In Studies 3-5, participants read about characters who undergo large life-changing (and connectedness-weakening) events at different points in their lives and then made decisions about the timing of benefits on behalf of these characters. All 5 studies revealed a relation between perceived psychological connectedness and intertemporal choice: Participants preferred benefits to occur before large changes in connectedness but preferred costs to occur after these changes.
如果人们知道在获得之前会有延迟,他们往往会对一件好事赋予较低的价值。例如,人们更看重明天收到 100 美元,而不是 10 年后收到 100 美元。我们探讨了这种趋势的一个原因(由于 Parfit,1984):就心理属性而言,如信仰、价值观和目标,决策者与明天收到 100 美元的人(他或她的未来自我)的联系比与 10 年后收到 100 美元的人更紧密。出于这个原因,他或她更希望他或她的近我拥有这 100 美元,而不是他或她的更遥远的自我。研究 1 和 2 表明,参与者生活中两个部分之间的心理联系程度越大,他或她对该时间段内未来货币和非货币利益(例如工作中的美好日子)的折扣就越少。在研究 3-5 中,参与者阅读了关于在不同时间点经历重大生活变化(和联系减弱)事件的角色的故事,然后代表这些角色做出关于利益时机的决策。所有 5 项研究都揭示了感知心理联系与跨期选择之间的关系:参与者更倾向于在联系发生重大变化之前获得利益,但更倾向于在这些变化之后承担成本。