Warwick Business School, Coventry, United Kingdom.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2012 Nov;38(6):1675-88. doi: 10.1037/a0028216. Epub 2012 May 7.
We extend the recently proposed tradeoff model of intertemporal choice (Scholten & Read, 2010) from choices between pairs of single outcomes to pairwise choices involving two-outcome sequences. The core of our proposal is that choices between sequences are made by weighing accumulated outcomes against outcome-adjusted delays. Thus extended, the tradeoff model offers a unified account of recently discovered anomalies in pairwise choices involving two-outcome sequences, including (a) the hidden-zero effect, in which explicit reference to the zero outcomes of the options increases patience, (b) the front-end amount effect, in which the addition of a front-end amount to both options decreases patience, and (c) the mere token effect, in which the addition of an early outcome to both options increases patience. Not only does the extended tradeoff model accommodate these anomalies, it also correctly predicts (d) violations of independence, (e) a reversal of the front-end amount effect, (f) the effect of relocating the front-end amount to the back end of both options, and (g) a dependence of the "mere" token effect on the magnitude of the token. In quantitative analyses, the extended tradeoff model offers an accurate account of the data.
我们将 Scholten 和 Read（2010）最近提出的跨期选择权衡模型从单一结果对之间的选择扩展到涉及两个结果序列的成对选择。我们建议的核心是，通过权衡累积结果与调整后的延迟来做出序列之间的选择。扩展后的权衡模型为最近在涉及两个结果序列的成对选择中发现的异常现象提供了一个统一的解释，包括（a）隐藏零效应，即明确参考选项的零结果会增加耐心，（b）前端金额效应，即向两个选项添加前端金额会降低耐心，以及（c）仅仅代币效应，即向两个选项添加早期结果会增加耐心。扩展后的权衡模型不仅可以容纳这些异常现象，还可以正确预测（d）违反独立性，（e）前端金额效应的反转，（f）将前端金额重新定位到两个选项的后端的效果，以及（g）“仅仅”代币效应对代币大小的依赖关系。在定量分析中，扩展后的权衡模型对数据进行了准确的解释。
