Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Erasmus Medical Center-Sophia Children's Hospital, P.O.Box 2060, 3000 CB, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2010 Jul;19(7):577-85. doi: 10.1007/s00787-010-0088-6. Epub 2010 Feb 6.
The aim of this study was to examine the prediction of adult behavioral and emotional problems from developmental trajectories of externalizing behavior in a 24-years longitudinal population-based study of 2,076 children. The adult psychiatric outcome of these trajectories has not yet been examined. Trajectories of the four externalizing behavior types: aggression, opposition, property violations and status violations were determined separately through latent class growth analysis using data of five waves, covering ages 4-18 years. We used regression analyses to determine the associations between children's trajectories and adults' psychiatric problems based on the Adult Self-Report. The developmental trajectories of the four types of externalizing behavior mostly predicted intrusive, aggressive and rule-breaking behavior in adulthood. Non-destructive behaviors in childhood such as opposition and status violations predict adult problems to a larger extent than destructive behaviors such as aggression and property violations. In general, children who develop through high-level trajectories are likely to suffer from both internalizing and externalizing problem behavior in adulthood, regardless the direction of change (i.e. increasing/decreasing/persisting) of the high-level trajectory. We can conclude that the level rather than the developmental change of externalizing behavior problems has a larger impact on adult outcome.
本研究旨在通过对 2076 名儿童进行 24 年的纵向基于人群的研究，从外化行为的发展轨迹来检验成年期行为和情绪问题的预测。这些轨迹的成年期精神病理学结局尚未被检验。通过使用包含年龄为 4-18 岁的五个时间点的数据的潜在类别增长分析，分别确定了四种外化行为类型（攻击、对立违抗、财产侵犯和地位侵犯）的轨迹。我们使用回归分析，基于成人自我报告，确定儿童轨迹与成人精神问题之间的关联。四种类型的外化行为的发展轨迹大多预测了成年期的侵入性、攻击性和违反规则行为。与破坏性行为（如攻击和财产侵犯）相比，儿童时期的非破坏性行为（如对立违抗和地位侵犯）更能预测成年期的问题。一般来说，无论高水平轨迹的变化方向（即增加/减少/持续）如何，发展轨迹较高的儿童更有可能在成年期同时患有内化和外化问题行为。我们可以得出结论，外显行为问题的水平而非发展变化对外显行为问题的成年期结局有更大的影响。
