The George Institute for International Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2010 Feb;11(1):8-15. doi: 10.1080/15389580903434207.
The objective of this article was to explore overall crash and injury trends over the past decade for young drivers residing in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, including gender and age disparities.
Passenger vehicle crashes for drivers aged 17-25 occurring during 1997-2007 were extracted from the state crash database to calculate crash rates (per licensed driver). Generalized linear models were used to examine crash trends over time by severity of driver injury, adjusting for age, gender, rurality of residence, and socioeconomic status. Yearly adjusted relative risks of crash by gender and by age group were also examined over the study period.
Young driver noninjury and fatality rates significantly decreased by an average of 4 percent (95% CI: 4-5) and 5 percent (95% CI: 0-9) respectively each year from 1997 to 2007. Young driver injury rates significantly increased by about 12 percent (95% CI: 9-14) to the year 2001 and then significantly decreased. The relative risk of crash (regardless of driver injury) for males compared to females significantly decreased over time. Compared to drivers aged 21-25, drivers aged 17 and particularly 18- to 20-year-olds had significantly and consistently higher crash risks across the study period.
Overall, there has been a significant decline in young driver crashes in NSW over the last decade. Regardless of injury severity, males' risk of crash has reduced more than female young drivers, but drivers aged 17 continue to be at higher risk. These findings provide feedback on potential road safety successes and areas needing specific interventions for future improvements.
本文旨在探讨过去十年澳大利亚新南威尔士州（NSW）年轻驾驶员的整体碰撞和受伤趋势，包括性别和年龄差异。
从州际碰撞数据库中提取了 1997 年至 2007 年间 17-25 岁驾驶员的乘用车碰撞事故数据，以计算碰撞率（每有证驾驶员）。使用广义线性模型，根据驾驶员受伤严重程度，调整年龄、性别、居住地的农村性和社会经济地位，研究时间内的碰撞趋势。还研究了研究期间每年按性别和年龄组调整的碰撞相对风险。
从 1997 年到 2007 年，年轻驾驶员的非伤害和致命率分别以平均每年 4%（95%CI：4-5）和 5%（95%CI：0-9）的速度显著下降。年轻驾驶员受伤率在 2001 年之前以约 12%（95%CI：9-14）的速度显著增加，然后显著下降。与女性相比，男性驾驶员的碰撞风险（无论驾驶员受伤情况如何）随着时间的推移显著降低。与 21-25 岁的驾驶员相比，17 岁的驾驶员，特别是 18-20 岁的驾驶员，在整个研究期间的碰撞风险明显更高。
总体而言，在过去十年中，新南威尔士州年轻驾驶员的碰撞事故显著减少。无论受伤严重程度如何，男性驾驶员的碰撞风险都比女性年轻驾驶员降低得更多，但 17 岁的驾驶员仍处于更高的风险中。这些发现为道路安全成功提供了反馈，并为未来的改进确定了需要特定干预的领域。
