The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, 1 University Station, C1761, Austin, TX 78712-0278, United States.
Accid Anal Prev. 2010 Nov;42(6):1839-54. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.05.005. Epub 2010 Jun 2.
In this paper, we capture the moderating effect of aggressive driving behavior while assessing the influence of a comprehensive set of variables on injury severity. In doing so, we are able to account for the indirect effects of variables on injury severity through their influence on aggressive driving behavior, as well as the direct effect of variables on injury severity. The methodology used in the paper to accommodate the moderating effect of aggressive driving behavior takes the form of two models--one for aggressive driving and another for injury severity. These are appropriately linked to obtain the indirect and direct effects of variables. The data for estimation is obtained from the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Study (NMVCCS). From an empirical standpoint, we consider a fine age categorization until 20 years of age when examining age effects on aggressive driving behavior and injury severity. There are several important results from the empirical analysis undertaken in the current paper based on post-crash data collection on aggressive behavior participation just prior to the crash and injury severity sustained in a crash. Young drivers (especially novice drivers between 16 and 17 years of age), drivers who are not wearing seat belt, under the influence of alcohol, not having a valid license, and driving a pick-up are found to be most likely to behave aggressively. Situational, vehicle, and roadway factors such as young drivers traveling with young passengers, young drivers driving an SUV or a pick-up truck, driving during the morning rush hour, and driving on roads with high speed limits are also found to trigger aggressive driving behavior. In terms of vehicle occupants, the safest situation from a driver injury standpoint is when there are two or more passengers in the vehicle, at least one of whom is above the age of 20 years. These and many other results are discussed, along with implications of the result for graduated driving licensing (GDL) programs.
在本文中，我们在评估综合变量对伤害严重程度的影响时，捕捉了攻击性驾驶行为的调节作用。通过这样做，我们能够通过攻击性驾驶行为对变量的间接影响以及变量对伤害严重程度的直接影响来解释变量对伤害严重程度的间接影响。本文用于适应攻击性驾驶行为调节作用的方法采用了两种模型——一种用于攻击性驾驶，另一种用于伤害严重程度。这些模型通过适当的链接来获得变量的间接和直接效应。估计使用的数据来自国家机动车碰撞原因研究（NMVCCS）。从经验角度来看，当研究年龄对攻击性驾驶行为和伤害严重程度的影响时，我们考虑了直到 20 岁的精细年龄分类。在对事故发生前的攻击性行为参与以及事故中遭受的伤害严重程度进行的基于事故后数据收集的实证分析中，有几个重要结果。年轻驾驶员（特别是 16 至 17 岁的新手驾驶员）、不系安全带、饮酒、没有有效驾照和驾驶皮卡的驾驶员最有可能表现出攻击性。情景、车辆和道路因素，如年轻驾驶员与年轻乘客一起旅行、年轻驾驶员驾驶 SUV 或皮卡、在早高峰时段驾驶以及在限速较高的道路上驾驶，也被发现会引发攻击性驾驶行为。就车辆乘员而言，从驾驶员受伤的角度来看，最安全的情况是车辆中有两个或更多乘客，至少有一个乘客年龄在 20 岁以上。这些结果以及许多其他结果都进行了讨论，并讨论了这些结果对分级驾驶许可（GDL）计划的影响。
