National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, MD-B343-06, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2010 Mar 15;44(6):2112-8. doi: 10.1021/es902057k.
Autistic disorder (AD) is a severe neurodevelopmental disorder typically identified in early childhood. Both genetic and environmental factors are implicated in its etiology. The number of individuals identified as having autism has increased dramatically in recent years, but whether some proportion of this increase is real is unknown. If real, susceptible populations may have exposure to controllable exogenous stressors. Using literature AD data from long-term (approximately 10-year) studies, we determined cumulative incidence of AD for each cohort within each study. These data for each study were examined for a changepoint year in which the AD cumulative incidence first increased. We used data sets from Denmark, California, Japan, and a worldwide composite of studies. In the Danish, California, and worldwide data sets, we found that an increase in AD cumulative incidence began about 1988-1989. The Japanese study (1988-1996) had AD cumulative incidence increasing continuously, and no changepoint year could be calculated. Although the debate about the nature of increasing autism continues, the potential for this increase to be real and involve exogenous environmental stressors exists. The timing of an increase in autism incidence may help in screening for potential candidate environmental stressors.
自闭症障碍（AD）是一种严重的神经发育障碍，通常在儿童早期被识别出来。遗传和环境因素都与其病因有关。近年来，被诊断为自闭症的人数急剧增加，但这种增加是否有一部分是真实的尚不清楚。如果是真实的，易感人群可能会接触到可控制的外源性应激源。我们使用来自长期（约 10 年）研究的自闭症文献数据，确定了每个研究中每个队列的自闭症累积发病率。我们检查了每个研究的数据，以确定自闭症累积发病率首次增加的转折点年份。我们使用了来自丹麦、加利福尼亚、日本和全球研究综合数据集的数据。在丹麦、加利福尼亚和全球数据集，我们发现 AD 累积发病率的增加始于 1988-1989 年左右。日本的研究（1988-1996 年）中 AD 的累积发病率持续增加，无法计算转折点年份。尽管关于自闭症增加性质的争论仍在继续，但这种增加可能是真实的，并涉及外源性环境应激源。自闭症发病率增加的时间可能有助于筛选潜在的候选环境应激源。
