Center for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
Clin Infect Dis. 2010 Mar 15;50(6):882-9. doi: 10.1086/650733.
To estimate the global burden of nontyphoidal Salmonella gastroenteritis, we synthesized existing data from laboratory-based surveillance and special studies, with a hierarchical preference to (1) prospective population-based studies, (2) "multiplier studies," (3) disease notifications, (4) returning traveler data, and (5) extrapolation. We applied incidence estimates to population projections for the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions to calculate regional numbers of cases, which were summed to provide a global number of cases. Uncertainty calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulation. We estimated that 93.8 million cases (5th to 95th percentile, 61.8-131.6 million) of gastroenteritis due to Salmonella species occur globally each year, with 155,000 deaths (5th to 95th percentile, 39,000-303,000 deaths). Of these, we estimated 80.3 million cases were foodborne. Salmonella infection represents a considerable burden in both developing and developed countries. Efforts to reduce transmission of salmonellae by food and other routes must be implemented on a global scale.
为了估计非伤寒沙门氏菌性胃肠炎的全球负担，我们综合了基于实验室监测和专门研究的现有数据，优先采用以下方法：（1）前瞻性基于人群的研究，（2）“乘数研究”，（3）疾病报告，（4）归国旅行者数据，以及（5）外推法。我们将发病率估计值应用于 21 个全球疾病负担区域的人口预测，以计算各区域的病例数，然后将这些数字相加得出全球病例数。使用蒙特卡罗模拟进行不确定性计算。我们估计，全球每年有 9380 万例（第 5 到 95 个百分位数为 6180 万至 13160 万例）由沙门氏菌引起的胃肠炎，其中有 15.5 万人（第 5 到 95 个百分位数为 3.9 万至 30.3 万人）死亡。其中，我们估计有 8030 万例病例是食源性的。沙门氏菌感染在发展中国家和发达国家都构成了相当大的负担。必须在全球范围内采取措施，减少食物和其他途径传播沙门氏菌的风险。
