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一种综合的方法来评估控制交通违法行为的政策。

An integrated approach to evaluate policies for controlling traffic law violations.

机构信息

Department of Transport, PO Box 20, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2010 Mar;42(2):427-36. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.09.004. Epub 2009 Oct 1.

Abstract

Modeling dynamics of the driver behavior is a complex problem. In this paper a system approach is introduced to model and to analyze the driver behavior related to traffic law violations in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. This paper demonstrates how the theoretical relationships between different factors can be expressed formally, and how the resulting model can assist in evaluating potential benefits of various policies to control the traffic law violations Using system approach, an integrated dynamic simulation model is developed, and model is tested to simulate the driver behavior for violating traffic laws during 2002-2007 in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The dynamic simulation model attempts to address the questions: (1) "what" interventions should be implemented to reduce and eventually control traffic violations which will lead to improving road safety and (2) "how" to justify those interventions will be effective or ineffective to control the violations in different transportation conditions. The simulation results reveal promising capability of applying system approach in the policy evaluation studies.

摘要

建模驾驶员行为动力学是一个复杂的问题。本文提出了一种系统方法,用于对阿布扎比酋长国的驾驶员违法行为相关行为进行建模和分析。本文演示了如何正式表达不同因素之间的理论关系,以及由此产生的模型如何有助于评估控制交通违法行为的各种政策的潜在收益。使用系统方法,开发了一个综合的动态仿真模型,并对模型进行了测试,以模拟 2002-2007 年在阿布扎比酋长国违反交通法规的驾驶员行为。动态仿真模型试图解决以下问题:(1)“应该”实施哪些干预措施来减少并最终控制交通违法行为,从而提高道路安全;(2)“如何”证明这些干预措施在不同的交通条件下是否有效或无效,以控制违法行为。模拟结果显示了系统方法在政策评估研究中的应用具有很大的潜力。

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