McCartt Anne T, Solomon Mark G
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Arlington, Virginia 22201, USA.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2004 Jun;5(2):93-100. doi: 10.1080/15389580490434863.
Research has shown that one of the best predictors of a driver's future crash risk is the number of prior moving traffic violations (e.g., speeding). Public driver records are used by government and nongovernment users to assess drivers' future crash risks. However, the adequacy of such records may be compromised by deficient recordkeeping systems and by court-based diversion programs (e.g., probation before judgment, traffic school election) that allow drivers presumed guilty to avoid convictions in court and posting of the violations to their driver records. Using a case study approach in four jurisdictions in three states, citations issued for traffic violations were tracked through court adjudication to placement on driver records. Individual court case records and driver history records were reviewed. The percentages of citations issued that appeared on driver records were 58-87% for moving violations, 30-94% for driving while impaired (DWI), and 67-95% for occupant restraint violations. Diversion programs were a significant factor in two states, where 21% and 35% of moving violation citations resulted in diversions. Almost all court convictions in each jurisdiction were recorded on driver records, but few citations resulting in diversions were recorded. Thus, diversion programs in some jurisdictions substantially reduce the utility of public driver records as reliable indicators of prior traffic violations and future crash risks. Recordkeeping inefficiencies and errors were less important factors in this study.
研究表明,驾驶员未来撞车风险的最佳预测指标之一是先前移动交通违规(如超速)的次数。政府和非政府用户利用公共驾驶员记录来评估驾驶员未来的撞车风险。然而,此类记录的充分性可能会受到记录保存系统不完善以及基于法庭的分流计划(如判决前缓刑、交通学校选举)的影响,这些计划允许被推定有罪的驾驶员避免在法庭上被定罪,以及避免将违规记录在他们的驾驶员记录中。采用案例研究方法,在三个州的四个司法管辖区,跟踪交通违规发出的传票直至其在驾驶员记录上的登记情况。审查了各个法庭案件记录和驾驶员历史记录。移动违规在驾驶员记录上出现的传票百分比为58 - 87%,酒后驾车(DWI)为30 - 94%,乘客约束违规为67 - 95%。在两个州,分流计划是一个重要因素,其中21%和35%的移动违规传票导致了分流。每个司法管辖区几乎所有的法庭定罪都记录在驾驶员记录上,但很少有导致分流的传票被记录。因此,一些司法管辖区的分流计划大幅降低了公共驾驶员记录作为先前交通违规和未来撞车风险可靠指标的效用。在本研究中,记录保存效率低下和错误是不太重要的因素。