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智利皮肤癌死亡率的上升超出了老龄化的影响:1990 年至 2005 年的时间分析。

Increased skin cancer mortality in Chile beyond the effect of ageing: Temporal analysis 1990 to 2005.

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.

出版信息

Acta Derm Venereol. 2010 Mar;90(2):141-6. doi: 10.2340/00015555-0787.

Abstract

Chile has a medium-to-high skin cancer mortality rate. Previous studies have shown an increasing rate of skin cancer mortality. We evaluated skin cancer mortality characteristics and their temporal evolution in Chile from 1990 to 2005 in a mixed ecological study using death certificate databases. Age, sex, year and region of residence were obtained for melanoma and non-melanoma deaths. Crude and age-sex-adjusted rates were calculated using the national projections and WHO 2000 standard population data. Descriptive and temporal analyses, using a Prais-Winsten regression, were computed. A total of 3588 deaths were registered, of which 55% were melanoma and 54% occurred in men (median age 71 years; women were older). The adjusted rate was 1.75 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants (2.22 in men vs. 1.39 in women). Melanoma skin cancer and non-melanoma skin cancer mortality had a tendency to increase. In conclusion, skin cancer mortality is rising beyond the rate predicted by ageing. An increased incidence due to changes in modifiable factors, such as exposure to ultraviolet radiation and arsenic, might explain the increase in skin cancer mortality.

摘要

智利的皮肤癌死亡率处于中高水平。既往研究显示皮肤癌死亡率呈上升趋势。本研究采用基于死亡证明的混合生态学研究,评估了 1990 年至 2005 年智利皮肤癌死亡率特征及其时间变化趋势。通过国家预测数据和世界卫生组织 2000 年标准人口数据,获取黑色素瘤和非黑色素瘤死亡病例的年龄、性别、年份和居住地区信息。采用全国预测数据和世界卫生组织 2000 年标准人口数据计算粗死亡率和年龄性别调整后死亡率。采用 Prais-Winsten 回归进行描述性和时间分析。共登记 3588 例死亡病例,其中 55%为黑色素瘤,54%发生在男性(中位年龄 71 岁;女性年龄更大)。调整后死亡率为 1.75/100,000 人(男性为 2.22/100,000 人,女性为 1.39/100,000 人)。黑色素瘤和非黑色素瘤皮肤癌死亡率呈上升趋势。结论:皮肤癌死亡率的上升速度超过了由人口老龄化导致的预期上升速度。由于紫外线辐射和砷等可改变因素的暴露增加,导致皮肤癌发病率上升,可能解释了皮肤癌死亡率的上升。

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