Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
Ambio. 2009 Dec;38(8):452-8. doi: 10.1579/0044-7447-38.8.452.
We used an off-line, regional, model of atmospheric transport and chemistry to investigate current and future levels of near-surface ozone and accumulated ozone exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(v) (AOT40) in Europe. To describe the current situation and enable an evaluation of the model's performance we simulated a number of years around 2000. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to possible emission changes in Europe, the model was run with the meteorology of the early 2000s and precursor emissions from a set of Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) emissions scenarios. By extrapolation of the observed increase in near-surface O3 at coastal locations in northwest Europe we constructed model boundaries that were used to simulate the impact of increasing hemispheric background in 2020. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to climate change, the model was run with recent (2000) emissions but using meteorology from a regional climate model simulating a control (1961-1990) and a future (2021-2050) climate. The results indicate that climate change will have a small impact on ozone concentrations and AOT40 in the Nordic countries. Changes in hemispheric background concentrations and changes in precursor emissions in Europe will have a larger effect on ozone in Northern Europe. The situation is quite different in southern Europe, where climate change is expected to result in a very large increase in near-surface ozone concentrations.
我们使用离线的区域大气传输和化学模型，研究了欧洲当前和未来近地表臭氧水平以及超过 40ppbv（v）阈值的臭氧累积暴露水平（AOT40）。为了描述当前情况并评估模型的性能，我们模拟了 2000 年前后的若干年。为了评估由于欧洲可能的排放变化而导致的臭氧浓度变化，我们使用 21 世纪初的气象数据和一组清洁空气欧洲（CAFE）排放情景的前体排放数据运行模型。通过对西北欧沿海地区近地表 O3 观测到的增加进行外推，我们构建了模型边界，用于模拟 2020 年半球背景增加的影响。为了评估气候变化对臭氧浓度的影响，我们使用最近（2000 年）的排放数据但使用区域气候模型模拟的控制（1961-1990 年）和未来（2021-2050 年）气候运行模型。结果表明，气候变化将对北欧国家的臭氧浓度和 AOT40 产生较小的影响。半球背景浓度的变化和欧洲前体排放的变化将对北欧的臭氧产生更大的影响。在南欧，情况则大不相同，预计气候变化将导致近地表臭氧浓度大幅增加。
