Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Umea University, Sweden.
Environ Health. 2012 Jun 28;11 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S4. doi: 10.1186/1476-069X-11-S1-S4.
For almost 20 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been assessing the potential health risks associated with climate change; with increasingly convincing evidence that climate change presents existing impacts on human health. In industrialized countries climate change may further affect public health and in particular respiratory health, through existing health stressors, including, anticipated increased number of deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves; increased frequency of cardiopulmonary events due to higher concentrations of air pollutants; and altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens and some infectious disease vectors. Additionally exposure to moulds and contaminants from water damaged buildings may increase.
We undertook an expert elicitation amongst European researchers engaged in environmental medicine or respiratory health. All experts were actively publishing researchers on lung disease and air pollution, climate and health or a closely related research. We conducted an online questionnaire on proposed causal diagrams and determined levels of confidence that climate change will have an impact on a series of stressors. In a workshop following the online questionnaire, half of the experts further discussed the results and reasons for differences in assessments of the state of knowledge on exposures and health effects.
Out of 16 experts, 100% expressed high to very high confidence that climate change would increase the frequency of heat waves. At least half expressed high or very high confidence that climate change would increase levels of pollen (50%), particulate matter (PM2.5) (55%), and ozone (70%). While clarity is needed around the impacts of increased exposures to health impacts of some stressors, including ozone and particulate matter levels, it was noted that definitive knowledge is not a prerequisite for policy action. Information to the public, preventive measures, monitoring and warning systems were among the most commonly mentioned preventative actions.
This group of experts identifies clear health risks associated with climate change, and express opinions about these risks even while they do not necessarily regard themselves as covering all areas of expertise. Since some changes in exposure have already been observed, the consensus is that there is already a scientific basis for preventative action, and that the associated adaptation and mitigation policies should also be evidence based.
近 20 年来，政府间气候变化专门委员会一直在评估与气候变化相关的潜在健康风险；越来越多的证据表明，气候变化已经对人类健康造成了现有影响。在工业化国家，气候变化可能通过现有的健康压力因素进一步影响公共健康，特别是呼吸健康，包括由于热浪导致预计死亡人数和急性发病率增加；由于空气污染物浓度增加导致心肺事件发生频率增加；以及过敏原和某些传染病媒介的时空分布发生变化。此外，暴露于建筑物水损坏产生的霉菌和污染物的风险可能会增加。
我们在从事环境医学或呼吸健康研究的欧洲研究人员中进行了专家评估。所有专家都是积极从事肺病和空气污染、气候与健康或密切相关研究的研究人员。我们就拟议的因果关系图进行了在线问卷调查，并确定了对气候变化将对一系列压力因素产生影响的置信度水平。在在线问卷调查之后的研讨会上，一半的专家进一步讨论了结果以及对知识状况评估方面存在差异的原因，涉及暴露和健康影响。
在 16 名专家中，100%的专家表示非常有信心气候变化将增加热浪的频率。至少有一半的专家表示非常有信心或高置信度认为气候变化将增加花粉（50%）、细颗粒物（PM2.5）（55%）和臭氧（70%）水平。虽然需要明确认识到一些压力因素的健康影响暴露增加的影响，包括臭氧和颗粒物水平，但专家们指出，明确的知识并不是采取政策行动的前提。向公众提供信息、采取预防措施、监测和预警系统是最常提到的预防措施。
专家组确定了与气候变化相关的明确健康风险，并对这些风险发表了意见，即使他们不一定认为自己涵盖了所有专业领域。由于已经观察到一些暴露变化，因此专家组达成共识，已经有采取预防行动的科学依据，相关适应和缓解政策也应基于证据。
