Department of Clinical Psychology, VU University Amsterdam, Van der Boechorststraat 1, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Br J Psychiatry. 2010 Mar;196(3):173-8. doi: 10.1192/bjp.bp.109.066001.
It is not clear whether the effects of cognitive-behavioural therapy and other psychotherapies have been overestimated because of publication bias.
To examine indicators of publication bias in randomised controlled trials of psychotherapy for adult depression.
We examined effect sizes of 117 trials with 175 comparisons between psychotherapy and control conditions. As indicators of publication bias we examined funnel plots, calculated adjusted effect sizes after publication had been taken into account using Duval & Tweedie's procedure, and tested the symmetry of the funnel plots using the Begg & Mazumdar rank correlation test and Egger's test.
The mean effect size was 0.67, which was reduced after adjustment for publication bias to 0.42 (51 imputed studies). Both Begg & Mazumbar's test and Egger's test were highly significant (P<0.001).
The effects of psychotherapy for adult depression seem to be overestimated considerably because of publication bias.
由于发表偏倚，认知行为疗法和其他心理疗法的效果是否被高估尚不清楚。
检验成人抑郁症心理治疗随机对照试验中发表偏倚的指标。
我们对 117 项试验中的 175 项心理治疗与对照条件之间的疗效进行了分析。我们用漏斗图来检验发表偏倚的指标，用 Duval 和 Tweedie 的程序来计算在考虑发表偏倚后调整的疗效大小，并使用 Begg 和 Mazumdar 等级相关检验和 Egger 检验来检验漏斗图的对称性。
平均疗效大小为 0.67，在考虑发表偏倚后调整为 0.42（51 项推断研究）。Begg 和 Mazumdar 的检验和 Egger 检验均高度显著（P<0.001）。
由于发表偏倚，成人抑郁症的心理治疗效果似乎被高估了很多。
