Rising trends in incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma and their future projections in Catalonia, Spain: increasing impact or future epidemic?

BACKGROUND

During the past decades, there has been a substantial increase in the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) among all Caucasian populations. Spain presents one of Europe's lowest incidence and mortality rates.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyse the recent trends of CMM incidence and mortality in a region with lower incidence as well as to project their future trends.

METHODS

Cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence data were provided by the Tarragona and Girona population-based cancer registries and mortality data were provided by the Mortality Registry of Catalonia. Time trends of incidence and mortality rates by CMM were assessed through the estimated annual percentages of change of the incidence and mortality age-standardized rates to the World Standard Population. Projections were based on a Bayesian age-period-cohort model using second order autoregressive effects on age.

RESULTS

During the last 20 years CMM incidence has increased substantially at a faster rate than any other neoplasms in Catalonia, particularly among women and this trend will probably continue for the next several years. Nevertheless, CMM mortality trends have been and probably will remain stable during this period.

CONCLUSION

Improvements in preventive activities should be implemented to decrease incidence and mortality from this cancer. Monitoring stage-specific trends in CMM incidence can assess the impact of preventive strategies; for this reason more complete information on diagnostic features of CMM patients in the Spanish population-based cancer registries are necessary.