饮酒对死亡率的影响：来自最低饮酒年龄的回归断点证据。
The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age.
作者信息
Carpenter Christopher, Dobkin Carlos
机构信息
The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, 428 SB, Irvine, CA 92697-3125 (e-mail:
出版信息
Am Econ J Appl Econ. 2009 Jan 1;1(1):164-182. doi: 10.1257/app.1.1.164.
Abstract
We estimate the effect of alcohol consumption on mortality using the minimum drinking age in a regression discontinuity design. We find large and immediate increases in drinking at age 21, including a 21 percent increase in recent drinking days. We also find a discrete 9 percent increase in the mortality rate at age 21, primarily due to motor vehicle accidents, alcohol-related deaths, and suicides. We estimate a 10 percent increase in the number of drinking days for young adults results in a 4.3 percent increase in mortality. Our results suggest policies that reduce drinking among young adults can have substantial public health benefits. (JEL I12, I18).
摘要
我们使用回归断点设计中的最低饮酒年龄来估计饮酒对死亡率的影响。我们发现，21岁时饮酒量大幅且立即增加，包括近期饮酒天数增加了21%。我们还发现，21岁时死亡率离散上升了9%，主要原因是机动车事故、与酒精相关的死亡和自杀。我们估计，年轻人饮酒天数增加10%会导致死亡率上升4.3%。我们的研究结果表明，减少年轻人饮酒的政策可以带来重大的公共卫生益处。（《经济学期刊分类号》I12、I18）
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