Choi James J, Laibson David, Madrian Brigitte C, Metrick Andrew
Yale University and NBER.
J Finance. 2009 Dec;64(6):2515-2534. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01509.x.
We show that individual investors over-extrapolate from their personal experience when making savings decisions. Investors who experience particularly rewarding outcomes from saving in their 401(k)-a high average and/or low variance return-increase their 401(k) savings rate more than investors who have less rewarding experiences with saving. This finding is not driven by aggregate time-series shocks, income effects, rational learning about investing skill, investor fixed effects, or time-varying investor-level heterogeneity that is correlated with portfolio allocations to stock, bond, and cash asset classes. We discuss implications for the equity premium puzzle and interventions aimed at improving household financial outcomes.
我们发现，个人投资者在做出储蓄决策时会过度依据自身经验进行推断。那些在401(k)计划储蓄中获得特别丰厚回报的投资者——高平均回报率和/或低回报方差——会比储蓄回报较差的投资者更多地提高其401(k)计划的储蓄率。这一发现并非由总体时间序列冲击、收入效应、对投资技能的理性学习、投资者固定效应或与股票、债券和现金资产类别的投资组合配置相关的随时间变化的投资者层面异质性所驱动。我们讨论了这一发现对股权溢价之谜的影响以及旨在改善家庭财务状况的干预措施。
