Curran James M, Buckleton John
Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
J Forensic Sci. 2010 Sep;55(5):1171-3. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2010.01446.x. Epub 2010 Jun 25.
Recent discussions on a forensic discussion group highlighted the prevalence of a practice in the application of inclusion probabilities when dropout is possible that is of significant concern. In such cases, there appears to be an unpublished practice of calculation of an inclusion probability only for those loci at which the profile of interest (hereafter the suspect) is fully included among the alleles present in the crime scene sample and to omit those loci at which the suspect has alleles that are not fully represented among the alleles in the mixture. The danger is that this approach may produce apparently strong evidence against a surprisingly large fraction of noncontributors. In this paper, the risk associated with the approach of ignoring loci with discordant alleles is assessed by simulation.
近期在一个法医讨论组中的讨论凸显出，在存在数据缺失可能性的情况下应用包含概率时，一种普遍存在的做法令人深感担忧。在这种情况下，似乎存在一种未公开的做法，即仅针对那些感兴趣的图谱（以下简称嫌疑人）的等位基因完全包含在犯罪现场样本中存在的等位基因中的位点计算包含概率，而忽略那些嫌疑人具有的等位基因在混合样本的等位基因中未得到充分体现的位点。危险在于，这种方法可能会针对相当大比例的非贡献者产生看似有力的证据。在本文中，通过模拟评估了忽略具有不一致等位基因的位点这种方法所带来的风险。
