Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Epidemiology. 2010 Jul;21(4):566-72. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181e08eb3.
The first major case-control study, published by Janet Lane-Claypon in 1926, provided the first epidemiologic evidence that low fertility increases breast cancer risk. This study in the United Kingdom was replicated in 1931 by JM Wainwright using a US sample. Neither study used modern statistical inference to interpret their data. We have evaluated and reanalyzed data from both studies to assess the validity of the original conclusions about the etiology of breast cancer.
We abstracted data from the published contingency tables for age at menarche, age at menopause, parity, age at marriage (as a proxy for age at first birth), and duration of lactation for each childbirth (as a proxy for lifetime duration of lactation). Study-specific odds ratios and associated 95% confidence intervals were calculated.
Findings from the quantitative reanalysis were consistent with contemporary epidemiologic evidence for age at menopause, parity, age at first birth, and duration of lactation.
Lane-Claypon's scientific efforts, as manifested in the 1926 UK study, are an excellent example of how one investigator's work can help develop a field of scientific inquiry.
1926 年,珍妮特·莱恩-克莱彭(Janet Lane-Claypon)发表了第一项大型病例对照研究,首次提供了流行病学证据,表明低生育率会增加乳腺癌风险。这项在英国进行的研究于 1931 年由 JM·温赖特(JM Wainwright)使用美国样本进行了复制。这两项研究都没有使用现代统计推断来解释他们的数据。我们评估并重新分析了这两项研究的数据,以评估关于乳腺癌病因的原始结论的有效性。
我们从已发表的列联表中提取了初潮年龄、绝经年龄、生育次数、初婚年龄(作为首次生育年龄的替代指标)和每个分娩时的哺乳期长度(作为终生哺乳期长度的替代指标)的数据。计算了每个研究的特定比值比及其 95%置信区间。
定量重新分析的结果与绝经年龄、生育次数、首次生育年龄和哺乳期长度的当代流行病学证据一致。
莱恩-克莱彭在 1926 年英国研究中的科学努力是一个很好的例子,说明了一个研究者的工作如何有助于发展一个科学研究领域。