Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Jun 15;107(24):11140-4. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1000530107. Epub 2010 May 28.
Palm oil is the world's most important vegetable oil in terms of production quantity. Indonesia, the world's largest palm-oil producer, plans to double its production by 2020, with unclear implications for the other national priorities of food (rice) production, forest and biodiversity protection, and carbon conservation. We modeled the outcomes of alternative development scenarios and show that every single-priority scenario had substantial tradeoffs associated with other priorities. The exception was a hybrid approach wherein expansion targeted degraded and agricultural lands that are most productive for oil palm, least suitable for food cultivation, and contain the lowest carbon stocks. This approach avoided any loss in forest or biodiversity and substantially ameliorated the impacts of oil-palm expansion on carbon stocks (limiting net loss to 191.6 million tons) and annual food production capacity (loss of 1.9 million tons). Our results suggest that the environmental and land-use tradeoffs associated with oil-palm expansion can be largely avoided through the implementation of a properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy.
棕榈油是全球产量最大的植物油。印度尼西亚作为全球最大的棕榈油生产国，计划在 2020 年前将产量翻番，这对其国内粮食（大米）生产、森林和生物多样性保护以及碳储量等其他国家重点事项产生了不确定影响。我们构建了不同发展方案的模型，结果显示，每一个单一重点事项方案都与其他事项存在显著冲突。唯一的例外是一种混合方法，即将目标对准退化土地和农业用地，这些土地最适合种植油棕榈，最不适宜种植粮食，而且碳储量最低。这种方法避免了森林或生物多样性的损失，并大大减轻了油棕榈种植扩张对碳储量（将净损失限制在 1.916 亿吨）和年度粮食生产能力（损失 190 万吨）的影响。研究结果表明，通过实施规划得当且空间明确的发展战略，可在很大程度上避免油棕榈种植扩张带来的环境和土地利用冲突。
