Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.
PLoS Pathog. 2010 May 27;6(5):e1000918. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1000918.
The global migration patterns of influenza viruses have profound implications for the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the disease. We developed a novel approach to reconstruct the genetic history of human influenza A (H3N2) collected worldwide over 1998 to 2009 and used it to infer the global network of influenza transmission. Consistent with previous models, we find that China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of this global network. However, we also find that strains of influenza circulate outside of Asia for multiple seasons, persisting through dynamic migration between northern and southern regions. The USA acts as the primary hub of temperate transmission and, together with China and Southeast Asia, forms the trunk of influenza's evolutionary tree. These findings suggest that antiviral use outside of China and Southeast Asia may lead to the evolution of long-term local and potentially global antiviral resistance. Our results might also aid the design of surveillance efforts and of vaccines better tailored to different geographic regions.
流感病毒的全球迁移模式对该疾病的进化和流行病学动态具有深远影响。我们开发了一种新方法，用于重建 1998 年至 2009 年间在全球范围内收集的人类甲型流感（H3N2）的遗传史，并利用它推断流感传播的全球网络。与之前的模型一致，我们发现中国和东南亚位于该全球网络的中心。然而，我们还发现，流感病毒株在亚洲以外地区传播了多个季节，通过南北地区之间的动态迁移而持续存在。美国是温带传播的主要中心，与中国和东南亚一起构成了流感进化树的主干。这些发现表明，在中国和东南亚以外地区使用抗病毒药物可能导致长期的局部和潜在的全球抗病毒耐药性的出现。我们的研究结果还可能有助于设计监测工作和更好地针对不同地理区域的疫苗。
