School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Science. 2024 Nov 8;386(6722):eadq3003. doi: 10.1126/science.adq3003.
The global dynamics of seasonal influenza viruses inform the design of surveillance, intervention, and vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a singular opportunity to evaluate how influenza circulation worldwide was perturbed by human behavioral changes. We combine molecular, epidemiological, and international travel data and find that the pandemic's onset led to a shift in the intensity and structure of international influenza lineage movement. During the pandemic, South Asia played an important role as a phylogenetic trunk location of influenza A viruses, whereas West Asia maintained the circulation of influenza B/Victoria. We explore drivers of influenza lineage dynamics across the pandemic period and reasons for the possible extinction of the B/Yamagata lineage. After a period of 3 years, the intensity of among-region influenza lineage movements returned to pre-pandemic levels, with the exception of B/Yamagata, after the recovery of global air traffic, highlighting the robustness of global lineage dispersal patterns to substantial perturbation.
季节性流感病毒的全球动态为监测、干预和疫苗接种策略的设计提供了信息。COVID-19 大流行提供了一个独特的机会来评估全球流感传播如何受到人类行为变化的干扰。我们结合分子、流行病学和国际旅行数据,发现大流行的开始导致国际流感谱系移动的强度和结构发生了转变。在大流行期间,南亚作为甲型流感病毒的系统发育主干位置发挥了重要作用,而西亚则维持着乙型/维多利亚流感的流行。我们探讨了大流行期间流感谱系动态的驱动因素,以及 B/Yamagata 谱系可能灭绝的原因。全球航空交通恢复后,经过 3 年的时间,除了 B/Yamagata 之外,各地区之间流感谱系移动的强度恢复到了大流行前的水平,这突出表明全球谱系扩散模式对重大干扰具有很强的稳健性。