Developmental Disabilities Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, MS E-92, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
J Autism Dev Disord. 2011 Feb;41(2):227-36. doi: 10.1007/s10803-010-1050-7.
We conducted the first study that estimates the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of a population-based autism spectrum disorders (ASD) surveillance system developed at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The system employs a records-review methodology that yields ASD classification (case versus non-ASD case) and was compared with classification based on clinical examination. The study enrolled 177 children. Estimated specificity (0.96, [CI(.95) = 0.94, 0.99]), PPV (0.79 [CI(.95) = 0.66, 0.93]), and NPV (0.91 [CI(.95) = 0.87, 0.96]) were high. Sensitivity was lower (0.60 [CI(.95) = 0.45, 0.75]). Given diagnostic heterogeneity, and the broad array of ASD in the population, identifying children with ASD is challenging. Records-based surveillance yields a population-based estimate of ASD that is likely conservative.
我们进行了第一项研究，评估了疾病预防控制中心开发的基于人群的自闭症谱系障碍（ASD）监测系统的敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值（PPV）和阴性预测值（NPV）。该系统采用记录审查方法，得出 ASD 分类（病例与非 ASD 病例），并与基于临床检查的分类进行比较。该研究纳入了 177 名儿童。估计的特异性（0.96，[CI（0.95）= 0.94，0.99]）、PPV（0.79 [CI（0.95）= 0.66，0.93]）和 NPV（0.91 [CI（0.95）= 0.87，0.96]）均较高。敏感性较低（0.60 [CI（0.95）= 0.45，0.75]）。鉴于诊断的异质性和人群中广泛存在的 ASD，识别患有 ASD 的儿童具有挑战性。基于记录的监测提供了 ASD 的人群估计，这可能较为保守。
