Dept. of Statistics, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2010 Jun 29;10:37. doi: 10.1186/1472-6947-10-37.
Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates. The severity and length of influenza outbreaks vary from year to year. Quick and reliable detection of the start of an outbreak is needed to promote public health measures.
We propose the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart of laboratory confirmed influenza counts to detect the start and end of influenza outbreaks.
The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia.
The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks.
流感病毒在温带气候中引起季节性爆发，通常在冬季和早春，并且在热带气候中流行。流感爆发的严重程度和持续时间每年都有所不同。需要快速可靠地检测到爆发的开始，以促进公共卫生措施。
我们提出使用实验室确诊流感病例的指数加权移动平均（EWMA）控制图来检测流感爆发的开始和结束。
该图表在来自澳大利亚维多利亚州的七年数据的示例应用中及时提供了信号。
EWMA 控制图可应用于其他应用程序，以快速检测流感爆发。
