Conditions for stable parapatric coexistence between Boophilus decoloratus and B. microplus ticks: a simulation study using the competitive Lotka-Volterra model.

The autochthonous tick Boophilus decoloratus, and the invasive species Bo. microplus, the tick most threatening the livestock industry in Africa, show complex interactions in their interspecific rivalry. This study was conducted to specify the conditions under which the two competitors can co-exist in equilibrium, and to provide insight into their climate-dependant parapatric distribution in Tanzania. A model of the Lotka-Volterra type was used, taking into account population dispersal and interactions of various kinds. If the model allowed for immunity-mediated competition on cattle, reproductive interference, and an external mortality factor, it explained fairly well the field observation that the borderline between these ticks loosely follows the 22-23°C isotherm and the 58 mm isohyet (i.e. ~700 mm of annual rainfall total). Simulations fully compatible with the pattern of real co-existing populations of Bo. decoloratus and Bo. microplus, characterized by a pronounced population density trough and mutual exclusion of the two ticks on cattle in an intermediary zone between their distributional ranges, were, however, achieved only if the model also implemented a hypothetical factor responsible for some mortality upon encounter of one tick with the other, interpretable as an interaction through a shared pathogen(s). This study also demonstrated the importance of non-cattle hosts, enabling the autochthon to avoid competition with Bo. microplus, for the behaviour of the modelled system. The simulations indicate that a substantial reduction of wildlife habitats and consequently of Bo. decoloratus refugia, may accelerate the replacement of Bo. decoloratus with Bo. microplus much faster than climatic changes might do.