Canudas-Romo Vladimir
Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Room E4634, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Demography. 2010 May;47(2):299-312. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0098.
This article examines the trend over time in the measures of "typical" longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth century: it moved from a plateau level, around age 80, to having a similar pace of increase as that observed for the mean and the median in most recent years. These findings explain the previously observed uninterrupted increase in the record life expectancy. The cause of this increase has changed over time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death.
本文研究了一段时间内人口中成员所经历的“典型”长寿衡量指标的趋势:出生时预期寿命、死亡年龄中位数和众数。本文还分析了这三个衡量指标所观察到的记录值趋势。出生时的记录预期寿命从1840年瑞典的44岁提高到2005年日本的82岁。死亡年龄中位数记录呈现出与出生时预期寿命类似的增长模式。然而,死亡年龄众数记录直到20世纪下半叶变化很小:它从80岁左右的平稳水平,转变为近年来与均值和中位数观察到的增长速度相似。这些发现解释了之前观察到的记录预期寿命的持续增长。这种增长的原因随着时间的推移从儿童死亡率降低占主导转变为成人死亡率降低占主导,这通过研究死亡年龄众数记录的趋势变得明显。