Bongaarts John
Population Council, 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA.
Demography. 2005 Feb;42(1):23-49. doi: 10.1353/dem.2005.0003.
In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.
在本文所报告的研究中，我有两个目标：（1）测试用于特定年龄成人死亡率随时间变化模式的逻辑模型的新版本；（2）开发一种预测成人死亡率未来趋势的新方法。对死亡率强度的逻辑模型拟合优度的检验表明，其斜率参数随时间几乎保持不变。这一发现提示了该模型的一种变体，即移动逻辑模型。本文提出了一种基于移动死亡率模型的新预测方法，并将其与广泛使用的李 - 卡特方法进行比较。
