Department of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary.
Int J Biometeorol. 2011 May;55(3):361-71. doi: 10.1007/s00484-010-0346-9. Epub 2010 Jul 13.
Nonparametric time-varying regression methods were developed to forecast daily ragweed pollen concentration, and the probability of the exceedance of a given concentration threshold 1 day ahead. Five-day and 10-day predictions of the start and end of the pollen season were also addressed with a nonparametric regression technique combining regression analysis with the method of temperature sum. Our methods were applied to three of the most polluted regions in Europe, namely Lyon (Rhône Valley, France), Legnano (Po River Plain, Italy) and Szeged (Great Plain, Hungary). For a 1-day prediction of both the daily pollen concentration and daily threshold exceedance, the order of these cities from the smallest to largest prediction errors was Legnano, Lyon, Szeged and Legnano, Szeged, Lyon, respectively. The most important predictor for each location was the pollen concentration of previous days. The second main predictor was precipitation for Lyon, and temperature for Legnano and Szeged. Wind speed should be considered for daily concentration at Legnano, and for daily pollen threshold exceedances at Lyon and Szeged. Prediction capabilities compared to the annual cycles for the start and end of the pollen season decreased from west to east. The order of the cities from the lowest to largest errors for the end of the pollen season was Lyon, Legnano, Szeged for both the 5- and 10-day predictions, while for the start of the pollen season the order was Legnano, Lyon, Szeged for 5-day predictions, and Legnano, Szeged, Lyon for 10-day predictions.
非参数时变回归方法被开发用于预测每日豚草花粉浓度，以及未来一天超过给定浓度阈值的概率。非参数回归技术与温度和方法相结合，用于预测花粉季节的开始和结束的 5 天和 10 天预测。我们的方法应用于欧洲三个污染最严重的地区，即里昂（法国罗纳河谷）、莱尼亚诺（意大利波河平原）和塞格德（匈牙利大平原）。对于每日花粉浓度和每日阈值超过的 1 天预测，这些城市的预测误差从最小到最大的顺序分别为莱尼亚诺、里昂、塞格德和莱尼亚诺、塞格德、里昂。对于每个地点，最重要的预测因子是前几天的花粉浓度。里昂的第二个主要预测因子是降水，而莱尼亚诺和塞格德的第二个主要预测因子是温度。对于莱尼亚诺的每日浓度和风速应予以考虑，对于里昂和塞格德的每日花粉阈值超过应予以考虑。与花粉季节开始和结束的年周期相比，预测能力从西向东逐渐降低。对于花粉季节结束的预测，5 天和 10 天预测的误差从低到高的城市顺序分别为里昂、莱尼亚诺、塞格德，而对于花粉季节开始的预测，5 天预测的顺序为莱尼亚诺、里昂、塞格德，而 10 天预测的顺序为莱尼亚诺、塞格德、里昂。
